When the 2024 election results came in, we at KC Solar were watching closely. A presidential transition always brings shifts in energy policy, and in the days immediately following the election, we published a post outlining the possibilities: the future of federal incentives was uncertain, the direction of clean energy efforts could change dramatically, and homeowners and businesses might need to act quickly to secure the existing solar tax credit.
One year later, we have a much clearer picture. Some of the concerns we raised turned out to be accurate. Others unfolded even faster than expected. And while the commercial solar landscape remains strong for now, residential incentives have changed in significant, sweeping ways.
We’re taking a look back at what we predicted in November 2024 and what actually happened in the months that followed.
What We Predicted A Year Ago
In our post from November 8, 2024, just days after the election, we wrote about several key themes:
1. Solar incentives were likely to be targeted.
We anticipated that a second Trump administration would prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy and potentially roll back federal clean-energy incentives, including the 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC).
2. The future of the ITC wasn’t guaranteed.
While the ITC had been extended through 2032 under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), we cautioned that these policy choices could be revisited or reversed depending on the administration’s priorities.
3. Homeowners and businesses should act quickly.
At the time, we encouraged Kansas City homeowners and businesses to take advantage of incentives while they were still available, knowing federal policy could shift abruptly.
4. Energy costs would continue rising, increasing the value of solar.
Regardless of policy changes, going solar would continue offering long-term financial stability and protection against rising utility rates.
5. Political changes tend to create uncertainty.
We emphasized that clean-energy programs historically see more volatility under conservative administrations — and that uncertainty alone could affect timelines, availability of incentives, and public confidence.
Those predictions formed the basis of our message last November: If you’re thinking about solar, don’t wait for Congress to decide your financial future.
What Actually Happened in 2025
As it turns out, much of what we anticipated did unfold — but the timeline moved faster and more definitively than many expected.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act Became the Defining Policy Shift
In May 2025, the House passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBB), legislation that fundamentally reshaped the federal tax structure and, in doing so, repealed the residential clean-energy tax credit.
The repeal was sweeping:
- The 30% residential ITC officially ended for systems not fully installed and operational by December 31, 2025.
- The extension established by the Inflation Reduction Act was effectively dismantled.
- Related clean-energy incentives — including EV credits and certain production credits — were also targeted or eliminated.
- This was one of the most significant reversals of federal clean-energy policy in over a decade.
Residential Solar Incentives Ended Faster Than Expected
Our November 2024 post had warned that incentives could disappear, but we were not yet predicting how quickly legislation would move. The OBBB’s timeline compressed the federal credit’s remaining lifespan by several years. Homeowners planning to wait until 2026 or beyond lost access entirely.
Given permitting backlogs, installation delays, and supply chain constraints, many homeowners simply couldn’t complete projects before the deadline — something we suspected might happen, but which hit harder in practice than theory.
Commercial Solar Incentives Survived — For Now
One outcome we didn’t fully anticipate last year is that commercial incentives would remain mostly intact. While residential solar was the focus of the repeal, the commercial ITC under Section 48 still offers a 30% credit for projects that begin construction before January 1, 2028.
Commercial solar now sits in a very different policy environment than residential:
- Businesses still have federal support.
- The 48E clean-energy transition credit is still scheduled to replace the ITC after 2027.
- Eligibility requirements and bonus incentives remain, though they could change with future amendments.
In short: the commercial sector retained stability that homeowners lost.
Energy Costs Continued Rising — Just as Expected
The prediction we made most confidently in 2024 was that utility rates would continue increasing. And over the past year, Kansas City businesses and households have seen higher energy bills driven by:
- Fuel price volatility
- Infrastructure costs
- Peak-season surcharges
- Increasing strain on aging grids
The financial case for solar remained strong even as policy changed around it.
What We’ve Learned From the Past Year
Looking back, several themes emerge clearly:
- Predictions matter, but policy can move faster than expected.
- Commercial solar remains a stable and cost-effective investment.
- Homeowners were disproportionately affected by federal policy changes.
- The financial fundamentals of solar didn’t change, even when incentives did.
A year later, the core lesson is simple: renewable energy policy isn’t just technical or political — it’s personal. It affects how families budget, how businesses operate, and how communities plan for the future.
Looking Ahead To 2026
We can’t predict what Congress will do next. But we can say this with certainty: solar remains one of the strongest ways for businesses to take control of their energy costs and long-term stability — especially while commercial incentives remain intact.
KC Solar is here to help you navigate this new landscape with clarity, honesty, and expertise. If your business is exploring commercial solar, now is an excellent time to understand your options, available incentives, and potential long-term savings.
We are a local company made up of KC natives with KC pride — in our city, and in our work. Which means we’ll always give you the best of ourselves.
And be sure to download our Free Solar Panel Buying Guide for more information.
We look forward to serving you!
